NFL Conference Championships - Predictions & Analysis

Reflections on the Divisional Round

After three road teams prevailed in a very unpredictable Wildcard Round, the Divisional Round brought things back into perspective as three of the four home teams took advantage of their first-round byes and moved on the Conference Championships. The lone road winner were the pesky Tennessee Titans who continue to stun the football world after wins in New England and Baltimore. Tennessee becomes the sixth #6 seed to advance to their Conference Championship. The previous five teams went 2-3 in this round with both winning teams (the 2005 Steelers and 2010 Packers) going on to win the Superbowl.

#6 Seeds Who Advanced to Conference Championship
Year	Team	Result
2005	Steelers	Won Superbowl
2008	Ravens	Lost AFC Championship
2008	Eagles	Lost NFC Championship
2010	Jets	Lost AFC Championship
2010	Packers	Won Superbowl

Another thing to keep in mind heading into Conference Championship Weekend is that there are two remaining QBs who are in their first playoff campaign, Titans QB Ryan Tannehill and 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Starting QBs reaching this point in their playoff debut are 20-35 in the Conference Championship game with 10 going on to win the Superbowl. As you can see, some of the league’s great QBs won a title in their playoff debuts and for a QB with such lofty expectations like Garoppolo, it would seem only fitting that he could take the next step in his promising career by adding his name to this list. For Tannehill who is 31 and on his second team, a Superbowl win could represent the end of a road to redemption, in a similar fashion to QBs like Jim Plunkett and Kurt Warner.

QBs Who Won the Superbowl in First Postseason
Year	Player	Team	Age
1968	Joe Namath	Jets	25
1971	Roger Staubach	Cowboys	29
1980	Jim Plunkett	Raiders	33
1981	Joe Montana	49ers	25
1982	Joe Theismann	Redskins	33
1985	Jim McMahon	Bears	26
1990	Jeff Hostetler	Giants	29
1992	Troy Aikman	Cowboys	26
1999	Kurt Warner	Rams	28
2001	Tom Brady	Patriots	24

(11-7) Tennessee Titans (#6 Seed) @ (13-4) Kansas City Chiefs (#2 Seed) – Sunday, January 19^th, 3:05pm

The only previous playoff matchup between the Titans and Chiefs marked an important turning point for the Chiefs’ franchise. In the 2017 Wildcard Round, the Titans rallied from a 21-3 halftime deficit to win 22-21, stunning the Chiefs at home and sending them to yet another Arrowhead playoff defeat. Desperate to make the most of their team and finally get back to their first Superbowl in nearly 50 years, Kansas City traded away starting QB Alex Smith to Washington despite Smith going 51-30 as a starter with 111 TD and just 35 INTs. Replacing Smith as the Chiefs starter was Patrick Mahomes, the 10^th overall pick in the 2017 draft who had just started 1 game that season. No one could have predicted what happened next as Mahomes took the league by storm, going 26-9 as a starter with the Chiefs and averaging 33.3 points per game. The Chiefs’ high-flying offense shocked the football world again last week when after conceding a 24-0 lead to the Houston Texans, the offense scored 41 straight points on seven straight possessions in a 51-31 demolition of Houston. The Texans certainly helped by giving the Chiefs field position in their own territory on the first three Kansas City TD drives, but Mahomes’ 321-yard, 5 TD performance will undoubtedly go down as one of the best QB performances in NFL Playoff history.

But make no mistake about it, for the Superbowl-starved Chiefs and their Head Coach Andy Reid (see my Sunday Divisional Round post for more on their previous playoff exits), this season will mean nothing if the Chiefs lose to the Titans this weekend. While it would be reasonable to argue that the Chiefs putting up 51 points against Houston will give them big time momentum heading into the AFC Championship, history would suggest otherwise. Teams that scored 51 or more points in the playoffs are 1-6 the following week (excluding 51+ point performances in the Superbowl as it is the final playoff game). The only team who did win their next game was the 1983 Washington Redskins who would ultimately get blown out in the Superbowl by the Raiders 38-9.

Next Playoff Game After Scoring 51+ Points
Team	Season	Points	Result Next Week
Cowboys	1967	52	Lost 21-17 to Green Bay in NFL Championship
Raiders	1969	56	Lost 17-7 to Kansas City in AFL Championship
Redskins	1983	51	Won 24-21 over San Francisco in NFC Championship
Bills	1990	51	Lost 20-19 to NY Giants in Superbowl
Eagles	1995	58	Lost 30-11 to Dallas in Divisional Round
Jaguars	1999	62	Lost 33-14 to Tennessee in AFC Championship
Cardinals	2009	51	Lost 45-14 to New Orleans in Divisional Round
Chiefs	2019	51	???

Meanwhile, no one outside of the state of Tennessee expected the Titans would be playing in this game. What’s even more surprising is that the Titans were able to knock off the Patriots and Ravens with essentially the same game plan: an aggressive rushing attack with RB Derrick Henry, a few big moments from a rarely utilized passing game, and a bend but don’t break defense. Tennessee has been outgained by their two opponents by a combined 837-572 yards yet have outscored them 48-25. On 12 of their 21 offensive possessions, New England and Baltimore entered Titans territory but came away with just 2 touchdowns. The Chiefs, meanwhile, have scored at least two offensive touchdowns in all but one of their games this year.

In just two playoff games, Derrick Henry has already had one of the most prolific postseasons as a running back as he has rushed for 377 yards, which puts him 7^th all-time in a single postseason (the 6 ahead of him played in at least 3 playoff games). If Kansas City will finally be the team to put a stop to Henry and the Titans’ run game, their defense will need to play much better than it has in the past. Kansas City’s defense was 26^th in run defense this year allowing 126 rushing yards per game. Even more concerning is the fact that their worst performance of the year in this category is when they surrendered 225 rushing yards to the Titans in a 35-32 loss to Tennessee in November.

Derrick Henry vs Kansas City
Date	Stats	Result
12/18/2016	9 Carries 58 Yards 2 TD	19-17 W
1/6/2018	23 Carries 156 Yards 1 TD	22-21 W
11/10/2019	23 Carries 188 Yards 2 TD	35-32 W

QB Ryan Tannehill had some great moments for the Titans when they needed him but was again generally uninvolved in the offense as he threw for 88 yards on 7 completions against the Ravens after just throwing for 72 yards on 8 completions against the Patriots. With how good the Chiefs offense is, it is unlikely that the Titans would be able to have the passing game be such a small part of their offense, so the question becomes can Ryan Tannehill perform well if he is forced to throw the ball more? In the Titans’ earlier win against Kansas City, Tannehill did benefit from yet another Derrick Henry dominant rushing performance, but the Titans did open it up more as Tannehill went 13-19 for 181 yards 2 TD and 0 INT. With his team trailing with under a minute to go in the 4^th quarter, Tannehill made a 20-yard completion to TE Anthony Frisker and then a 23-yard game winning TD pass to Adam Humphries with just 23 seconds remaining. Tannehill is certainly at his best when he is the game manager and the Chiefs key to success will be to force the Titans out of their comfort zone by making them play from behind and have to throw the ball more often.

The Titans and Chiefs will be the 14^th AFC Championship matchup since 2000 where the teams had previously met once in the regular season. The Titans will be happy to know that the team that won the regular season matchup is 9-4 in the AFC Championship rematch. Obviously one huge difference will be that the regular season Titans win was in Nashville and the Chiefs will play host for this game. Since 2000  there were just two times where the winner was the home team and had to travel to their opponent’s field for the AFC Championship. In 2013 the Patriots beat the Broncos at home but then lost the AFC Championship in Denver 26-16 and last year the Patriots won against Kansas City at home in the regular season and again on the road in the AFC Championship, 37-31.

Rematches in AFC Championship Since 2000
Year	Teams	Regular Season Game	Site	AFC Championship	Site
2002	Raiders, Titans	52-25 Oakland	Oakland	41-24 Oakland	Oakland
2003	Patriots, Colts	38-34 New England	Indianapolis	24-14 New England	Foxborough
2004	Patriots, Steelers	34-20 Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh	41-27 New England	Pittsburgh
2006	Colts, Patriots	27-20 Indianapolis	Foxborough	38-34 Indianapolis	Indianapolis
2007	Patriots, Chargers	38-14 New England	Foxborough	21-12 New England	Foxborough
2009	Colts, Jets	29-15 NY Jets	Indianapolis	30-17 Indianapolis	Indianapolis
2010	Steelers, Jets	22-17 NY Jets	Pittsburgh	24-19 Pittsburgh	Pittsburgh
2012	Ravens, Patriots	31-30 Baltimore	Foxborough	28-13 Baltimore	Foxborough
2013	Broncos, Patriots	34-31 New England	Foxborough	26-16 Denver	Denver
2014	Patriots, Colts	42-20 New England	Indianapolis	45-7 New England	Foxborough
2015	Broncos, Patriots	30-24 Denver	Denver	20-18 Denver	Denver
2016	Patriots, Steelers	27-16 New England	Pittsburgh	36-17 New England	Foxborough
2018	Patriots, Chiefs	43-30 New England	Foxborough	37-31 New England	Kansas City
2019	Titans, Chiefs	35-32 Tennessee	Nashville	???	Kansas City

While I’m concerned about picking against the Titans and their magical run for a third straight week and for trusting an Andy Reid coached team to win a big game, I think this is the Chiefs’ year and they will overcome a spirited Titans effort to advance to their first Superbowl in nearly 50 years.

Prediction: Kansas City 34, Tennessee 27

(14-3) Green Bay Packers (#2 Seed) @ (14-3) San Francisco 49ers (#1 Seed) – Sunday, January 19^th, 6:40pm

This will be the eighth time that Green Bay and San Francisco will meet in the playoffs, but it is a relatively modern rivalry as the previous seven matchups (Packers hold a 4-3 edge) have all come since the 1995 season. In the 1995 Divisional Round, Green Bay stunned the defending champion 49ers with a 27-17 win in San Francisco. The following season, the top seeded Packers would beat the 49ers 35-14 on their way to a Superbowl victory. They would meet for a 3^rd straight year and this time in the exact same situation we have this year with the #2 seeded Packers visiting the #1 seeded Niners. Green Bay would win yet again by a score of 23-10. San Francisco would finally exact their revenge in their fourth straight matchup in the 1998 Wildcard Round in San Francisco. The Niners won 30-27 as QB Steve Young would record his final playoff win in his storied career by throwing the game-winning TD pass to WR Terrell Owens with just 3 seconds to play. Three years later these teams would meet in the 2001 Wildcard Round with Green Bay getting its fourth and final win by a score of 25-15 at Lambeau Field. A decade later, these teams would meet two more times, in the 2012 Divisional Round and the 2013 Wildcard Round. San Francisco won both of these games, 45-31 and 23-20 respectively in games that were largely dominated by 49ers QB Colin Kaepernick who threw for a combined 490 yards and rushed for 279 yards.

This year’s NFC Championship will be a matchup of contrasting styles as Green Bay is a very average team statistically -- they have the 18^th best offense and defense in the league in terms of yards per game. They employ a very balanced approach to their offense as they averaged 233 passing yards and 112 rushing yards per game. Although their defense actually allows more yards (352.6 per game) than their offense gains (345.5 per game), the Packers take care of the ball as they had a +12 turnover differential in the regular season. In fact, the Packers were outgained in 9 of their games (7 of them wins), but also did not commit a turnover in 9 games, which is the most turnover-less games by any team in the NFL this season. The 49ers on the other hand are much more aggressive and freewheeling. They are 4^th in yards gained (381.1 per game) and 2^nd in yards allowed (281.8 per game) and commit almost as many turnovers (23) as they force (27). They outgained their opponents in 14 of their regular season games and committed at least one turnover in 12 of them. Both teams’ Divisional Round games played out very similarly as the Packers were outgained by Seattle 375-344 with the Packers throwing for 235 yards, rushing for 109 and committing no turnovers in a 28-23 win. San Francisco outgained Minnesota 308-147 while both forcing and committing 2 turnovers in a 27-10 win at home. While turnovers are usually a critical factor in any playoff game, the Packers will likely need the turnover differential to be in their favor to win this game.

The Packers did not win the turnover battle earlier this season when they committed the only turnover in an embarrassing 37-8 loss in San Francisco on Sunday Night Football in November. San Francisco outgained Green Bay 339-198 and held them to a season-low 81 passing yards. Green Bay was 1-15 (7% conversion) on 3^rd down, which is far below their season average of 36% on third down conversions. I think it’s reasonable to expect that this game will certainly be closer even if the Niners prevail once again. Since 2000, when teams meet for the second time in the NFC Championship, the regular season winners are just 3-6 in the rematch, and teams are 2-3 when winning at home in the regular season and hosting the NFC Championship game.

Rematches in NFC Championship Since 2000
Year	Teams	Regular Season Game	Site	NFC Championship	Site
2001	Rams, Eagles	20-17 St. Louis	Philadelphia	29-24 St. Louis	St. Louis
2002	Buccaneers, Eagles	20-10 Philadelphia	Philadelphia	27-10 Tampa Bay	Philadelphia
2003	Panthers, Eagles	25-16 Philadelphia	Charlotte	14-3 Carolina	Philadelphia
2007	Giants, Packers	35-13 Green Bay	New York	23-20 NY Giants	Green Bay
2008	Cardinals, Eagles	48-20 Philadelphia	Philadelphia	32-25 Arizona	Phoenix
2011	Giants, 49ers	27-20 San Francisco	San Francisco	20-17 NY Giants	San Francisco
2014	Seahawks, Packers	36-16 Seattle	Seattle	28-22 Seattle	Seattle
2016	Falcons, Packers	33-32 Atlanta	Atlanta	44-21 Atlanta	Atlanta
2018	Rams, Saints	45-35 New Orleans	New Orleans	26-23 LA Rams	New Orleans
2019	49ers, Packers	37-8 San Francisco	San Francisco	???	San Francisco

This game should go down to the wire but ultimately I think that Green Bay’s philosophy of not making mistakes and the playoff experience of their players (Green Bay has 15 starters with previous playoff experience compared to just 7 of the 49ers starters) will allow them to pull off the road upset, avenge their regular season defeat, and give 36-year old QB Aaron Rodgers perhaps his last shot of winning a second Superbowl title.

Prediction: Green Bay 27, San Francisco 24