Superbowl Analysis & Prediction
Superbowl LIV (14-4) Kansas
City Chiefs vs. (15-3) San Francisco 49ers – Sunday, February 2nd, 6:40pm
The San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs enter
Superbowl 54 with polar opposite franchise histories. The Chiefs began their
existence as one of the premier franchises of the American Football League and
represented the league in Superbowl I (a 35-10 loss to the Green Bay Packers)
before breaking through and defeating the Minnesota Vikings in Superbowl IV
23-7. But in the nearly 50 years since that win, it has been an era of
disappointment as they have had 26 winning seasons and 17 playoff appearances
but 0 Superbowl appearances. The 49ers on the other hand, spent their first
three decades in the NFL as a laughing stock as they won just 46% of their
games and made 4 playoff appearances. That all changed in 1981 season when the
49ers lead by head coach Bill Walsh and starting quarterback Joe Montana
defeated the Bengals 21-16 in Superbowl 26. The Niners would go on to win 3
more titles with Montana under center and won a 5th Superbowl in the
1994 season after the Niners had traded Montana to the Chiefs in favor of Steve
Young (Montana led the Chiefs to one of their two AFC Championship appearances
before this season). Even though San Francisco has gone through some leaner
years since their run in the 80’s and 90’s, they did manage to go to three
straight NFC Championships from 2011-13 and narrowly lost Superbowl 47 to
Baltimore by a score of 34-31. A Superbowl victory for Kansas City would at
last be a title for a proud but snake bitten organization, while a Superbowl
victory for the 49ers would be just another Lombardi trophy on the mantle of
one the NFL’s greatest franchises.
This will mark the first time in seven years that neither
starting QB will have previously appeared in the Superbowl, the last being in
2012 when Ravens starting QB Joe Flacco and 49ers starting QB Colin Kaepernick entered
the game with no previous Superbowl experience. While a game featuring 49ers QB
Jimmy Garoppolo and Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is billed to be one of high
scoring offense, the previous 5 matchups where two QBs are making their
Superbowl debut produced some rather uninspiring offensive performances as
these QBs combined for 12 TDs and 17 INTs with an average of 214 passing yards.
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Superbowls Since 2000
With Both Starting QBs Making Superbowl Debut
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Year
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Winner
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Stats
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Loser
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Stats
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2000
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Trent Dilfer (BAL)
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12-25 153 yds 1 TD
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Kerry Collins (NYG)
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15-39 112 yds 4 INT
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2002
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Brad Johnson (TB)
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18-34 215 yds 2 TD 1 INT
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Rich Gannon (OAK)
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24-44 272 yds 2 TD 5 INT
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2005
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Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)
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9-21 123 yds 2 INT
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Matt Hasselbeck (SEA)
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26-49 273 yds 1 TD 1 INT
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2006
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Peyton Manning (IND)
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25-38 247 yds 1 TD 1 INT
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Rex Grossman (CHI)
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20-28 165 yds 1 TD 2 INT
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2012
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Joe Flacco (BAL)
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22-33 287 yds 3 TD
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Colin Kaepernick (SF)
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16-28 302 yds 1 TD 1 INT
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The 49ers shocked everyone two weeks ago by rushing for a
season high 285 yards, paving the way for a 37-20 rout of the Green Bay Packers
in the NFC Championship. The San Francisco rushing attack was so unstoppable
that Garoppolo ended up throwing just 8 times, which was the fewest number of
pass attempts in NFC Championship history. While all 8 QBs who had thrown 20
times or fewer in the NFC Championship had won the game, history would suggest
that this sort of effort does not necessarily carry over to the next game as
the previous 7 QBs went 4-3 in the Superbowl.
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Teams with 20 pass
attempts or fewer in the NFC Championship
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Team
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Year
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QB
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Stats
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Result
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Superbowl Stats
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Result
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49ers
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2019
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Jimmy Garoppolo
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6-8 77 yds
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37-20 W
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???
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???
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Panthers
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2003
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Jake Delhomme
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9-14 101 yds 1 TD
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14-3 W
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16-33 323 yds 3 TD
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32-29 L
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Giants
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1986
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Phil Simms
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7-14 90 yds 1 TD
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17-0 W
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22-25 268 yds 3 TD
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39-20 W
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Redskins
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1991
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Mark Rypien
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12-17 228 yds 2 TD
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41-10 W
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18-33 292 yds 2 TD 1 INT
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37-24 W
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Redskins
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1972
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Billy Kilmer
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14-18 194 yds 2 TD
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26-3 W
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14-28 104 yds 3 INT
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14-7 L
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Cowboys
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1971
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Roger Staubach
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9-18 103 yds
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14-3 W
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12-19 119 yds 2 TD
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24-3 W
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Redskins
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1982
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Joe Theismann
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12-20 150 yds 1 TD
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31-17 W
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15-23 143 yds 2 TD 2 INT
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27-17 W
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Vikings
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1974
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Fran Tarkenton
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10-20 123 yds 1 TD 1 INT
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14-10 W
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11-26 102 yds 3 INT
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16-6 L
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The 49ers rushing attack in top form against the Chiefs’
rushing defense who ranked 26th in the league would seem like a huge
advantage, yet in their previous two playoff games Kansas City surrendered just
94 and 85 rushing yards respectively after giving up 128 rushing yards per game
in the regular season. Many have suggested that the Chiefs defense has gotten
better but I’d suggest that Kansas City’s very strong offensive performances
were successful in forcing their opponents to abandon their running game.
Tennessee and Houston who were both attempting a second-half comeback against
the Chiefs, each ran just 4 running plays in the second half. If San Francisco
can take a lead or at least stay competitive heading into the second half,
their ability to run the ball could expose the Chiefs defense and prove to be a
pivotal matchup.
At 24 years old, Patrick Mahomes will be the 5th
youngest QB to start a Superbowl. Things have not gone well for the previous
four, as they have gone just 1-3, with the sole winner Ben Roethlisberger
having a particularly dreadful passing performance. What is also concerning for
Mahomes is that this list includes Dan Marino and Jared Goff who put together
prolific regular seasons before struggling mightily in the Superbowl.
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Youngest QBs to Start
Superbowl
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Year
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QB
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Team
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Stats
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Result
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1984
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Dan Marino
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Dolphins
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29-50 318 yds 1 TD 2 INT
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38-16 L
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2005
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Ben Roethlisberger
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Steelers
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9-21 123 yds 2 INT
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21-10 W
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1982
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David Woodley
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Dolphins
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4-14 97 yds 1 TD 1 INT
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27-17 L
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2018
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Jared Goff
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Rams
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19-38 229 yds 1 INT
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13-3 L
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2019
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Patrick Mahomes
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Chiefs
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???
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???
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The Achilles heel of the 49ers that I had eluded to in my
previous two posts is their propensity to commit turnovers. After all, 8 of the
last 10 teams to win the turnover battle ended up winning the Superbowl. The
49ers played mistake free against Green Bay after committing 2 turnovers the
previous week against the Vikings. Given that Kansas City committed the
third-fewest turnovers in the league this year, averaging less than 1 per game,
it is critical for San Francisco to not lose the turnover battle.
In terms of coaching, this game will feature two head
coaches looking for Superbowl redemption. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is the
winningest coach in the NFL not to win a championship and is returning to the
game for the first time in 15 years. Coaches returning to the Superbowl after
losing in their first appearance have gone just 4-5 in their second try. While
Reid’s Superbowl drought (15 years) is the longest of any on this list, Bill
Cowher and John Fox went a decade between their first and second Superbowl
appearances with the former winning 21-10 and subsequently retiring, but the
latter getting embarrassed in a 43-8 blowout. Meanwhile 49ers head coach Kyle
Shanahan will look to seal a Superbowl championship after his widely panned
performance as the Falcons offensive coordinator three years ago as Atlanta
blew a 28-3 lead to the Patriots.
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Head Coaches Who Lost
First Superbowl
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Coach
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Team(s)
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First Superbowl
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Result
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Second Superbowl
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Result
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Hank Stram
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Chiefs
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1966 vs Packers
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35-10 L
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1969 vs Vikings
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23-7 W
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Don Shula
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Colts/Dolphins
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1968 vs Jets
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16-7 L
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1972 vs Cowboys
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24-3 L
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Bud Grant
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Vikings
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1969 vs Vikings
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23-7 L
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1973 vs Dolphins
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24-7 L
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Tom Landry
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Cowboys
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1970 vs Colts
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16-13 L
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1971 vs Dolphins
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24-3 W
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Dick Vermeil
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Eagles/Rams
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1980 vs Raiders
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27-10 L
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1999 vs Titans
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23-16 W
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Dan Reeves
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Broncos
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1986 vs Giants
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39-20 L
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1987 vs Redskins
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42-10 L
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Marv Levy
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Bills
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1990 vs Giants
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20-19 L
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1991 vs Redskins
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37-24 L
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Bill Cowher
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Steelers
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1995 vs Cowboys
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27-17 L
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2005 vs Seahawks
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21-10 W
|
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John Fox
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Panthers/Broncos
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2003 vs Patriots
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32-29 L
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2013 vs Seahawks
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43-8 L
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Andy Reid
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Eagles/Chiefs
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2004 vs Patriots
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24-21 L
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2019 vs 49ers
|
???
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Ultimately these two teams look relatively evenly matched
and this should be a close game. If San Francisco wins, it will likely be
because the Niners play error-free football and establish their running game
with NFC Championship star RB Raheem Mostert. If Kansas City wins, it will
likely be because the game is a shootout with Patrick Mahomes having a ton of
passing yards and multiple passing TDs. While I would not be surprised to see
Mahomes lead the Chiefs to victory and end up as the Superbowl MVP, I believe
the Niners will eventually pull this one out.
Prediction: San Francisco 35, Kansas City 32
