NFL Divisional Round - Saturday Game Analysis & Predictions
Reflections on
Wildcard Weekend
In only its first
week, the NFL playoffs have already been met with considerable drama as two
teams (New England and New Orleans) with aging future Hall of Fame Quarterbacks
were upset at home. There were two overtime games in the Wildcard Round for the
first time in NFL history. Just one home team (Houston) ended up advancing,
while two #6 seeds that had backed into the playoffs (Tennessee and Minnesota)
shocked the football world and will play the top teams in their respective conferences.
As I reflected on where I went wrong, as I only predicted the Seattle-Philadelphia
game correctly, I began to think that it was really strange that no #3 seed and
one #4 seed had advanced. When was the last time that that happened? It turns
out I had to go all the way back to last season to find the last time that both
#6 seeds (Philadelphia and Indianapolis) and one #5 seed (LA Chargers) had
advanced. In fact, since 1990 when the modern playoff structure began, this has
been the third-most likely outcome to occur in the Wildcard Round.
|
Outcomes of the NFL Wildcard Round
Since 1990
|
||
|
Wildcard Outcome
|
Number
|
Percentage
|
|
All 3's & 4's Win
|
4
|
13%
|
|
Both 3's Win, One 4 Wins
|
6
|
20%
|
|
Both 3's Win, No 4 Wins
|
1
|
3%
|
|
Both 4's Win, One 3 Wins
|
7
|
23%
|
|
Both 4's Win, No 3 Wins
|
1
|
3%
|
|
One 3 Wins, One 4 Wins
|
3
|
10%
|
|
One 3 Wins, No 4 Wins
|
2
|
7%
|
|
One 4 Wins, No 3 Wins
|
5
|
17%
|
|
No 3's & 4's Win
|
1
|
3%
|
Heading into the
Divisional Round the question becomes whether these wildcard teams can ride the
momentum and pull off another road upset. One thing to keep in mind is that
historically home-field advantage has mattered much more in the Divisional
Round than in the Wildcard Round. There has never been a season where all four
home teams lost in the Divisional Round, while the only time just one home team
won in this round was in 2008.
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Home Wins By Round Since 1990
|
||||||
|
Wildcard Home Wins
|
Divisional Home Wins
|
|||||
|
Four
|
4
|
13%
|
Four
|
8
|
28%
|
|
|
Three
|
13
|
43%
|
Three
|
13
|
45%
|
|
|
Two
|
5
|
17%
|
Two
|
7
|
24%
|
|
|
One
|
7
|
23%
|
One
|
1
|
3%
|
|
|
Zero
|
1
|
3%
|
Zero
|
0
|
0%
|
|
(11-6) Minnesota
Vikings (#6 Seed) @ (13-3) San Francisco 49ers (#1 Seed) – Saturday, January 11th,
4:35pm
The top-seeded San Francisco 49ers enter the playoffs with lofty
expectations despite this being their first playoff appearance in six seasons.
After a very tumultuous period in which the 49ers had 4 head coaches in 4
years, head coach Kyle Shanahan in his third season appears to have built a
contender for years to come. Offensively, the 49ers scored 479 points, which is
the most since their last Superbowl winning season in 1994. On defense, they
have surrendered the fewest amount of points (310), since their last NFC
Championship appearance in 2013. Their offense is bolstered by the second-best
running game in the league (2305 yards, 23 TDs) and their defense is sixth in
the league in forcing turnovers (another plus in the playoffs) with 27.
One of the big question marks for San Francisco going into
this game will be the play of QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is a proven winner
in his brief time with the 49ers as he has gone 19-5 as a starter, including a
13-3 record this year in his first full season. But Garoppolo struggled with
turnovers as he threw 13 interceptions this season which was tied for 8th
most in the league with Dolphins QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jets QB Sam Darnold. Garoppolo,
at the age of 28, will be making his playoff debut Saturday afternoon. Of
course, unlike most young quarterbacks, Garoppolo did win two Superbowls as Tom
Brady’s backup in New England, which could prove to be crucial playoff experience,
but you always wonder how young quarterbacks will fare in their debut. What
works in Garoppolo’s favor is that since 1990, QBs under 30 making their
playoff debut in the Divisional Round are 16-8 in those games and four of them
(Tom Brady, Kurt Warner, Troy Aikman, and Jeff Hostetler) went on to win the
Superbowl.
|
Quarterbacks Under 30 Making Their
Debut in Divisional Round
|
||||
|
Year
|
Player
|
Team
|
Age
|
Result
|
|
2018
|
Patrick Mahomes
|
Chiefs
|
23
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
2017
|
Case Keenum
|
Vikings
|
29
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
2016
|
Dak Prescott
|
Cowboys
|
23
|
Lost NFC Divisional
|
|
2013
|
Cam Newton
|
Panthers
|
24
|
Lost NFC Divisional
|
|
2012
|
Colin Kaepernick
|
49ers
|
25
|
Lost Superbowl
|
|
2011
|
Alex Smith
|
49ers
|
27
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
2010
|
Jay Cutler
|
Bears
|
27
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
2006
|
Philip Rivers
|
Chargers
|
25
|
Lost AFC Divisional
|
|
2005
|
Rex Grossman
|
Bears
|
25
|
Lost NFC Divisional
|
|
2004
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Steelers
|
22
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
2003
|
Marc Bulger
|
Rams
|
26
|
Lost NFC Divisional
|
|
2001
|
Tom Brady
|
Patriots
|
24
|
Won Superbowl
|
|
2000
|
Daunte Culpepper
|
Vikings
|
23
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
1999
|
Peyton Manning
|
Colts
|
23
|
Lost AFC Divisional
|
|
1999
|
Shaun King
|
Buccaneers
|
22
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
1999
|
Kurt Warner
|
Rams
|
28
|
Won Superbowl
|
|
1997
|
Elvis Grbac
|
Chiefs
|
27
|
Lost AFC Divisional
|
|
1997
|
Kordell Stewart
|
Steelers
|
25
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
1996
|
Kerry Collins
|
Panthers
|
24
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
1996
|
Mark Brunell
|
Jaguars
|
26
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
1992
|
Neil O'Donnell
|
Steelers
|
26
|
Lost AFC Divisional
|
|
1992
|
Troy Aikman
|
Cowboys
|
26
|
Won Superbowl
|
|
1991
|
Erik Kramer
|
Lions
|
27
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
1990
|
Jeff Hostetler
|
Giants
|
29
|
Won Superbowl
|
Fresh off of an overtime win against the Saints in New
Orleans, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings will look to shock the football world for
a second straight week. Minnesota forced 2 turnovers against a team that had
surrendered just 8 all season, RB Dalvin Cook returned to the lineup and rushed
for 94 yards and 2 TD, and Kirk Cousins was excellent going 19-31 for 242 yards
with 1 TD and 0 INT.
The numbers would suggest that these three aspects will be
vital again if they are going to pull off the upset in San Francisco. First,
San Francisco committed 27 turnovers in 2019 and in the only matchup between
Garoppolo and Cousins (the 2018 season opener), the Vikings defense forced 4
turnovers, including 3 Garoppolo INTs in a 24-16 win. Dalvin Cook will look for
a repeat performance against a 49ers defense that was 17th in the
league in rushing yards allowed (112 yards/game) and 23rd in yards
per rushing attempt (4.5). And while Kirk Cousins might concern you against a
Niners defense who are first in passing yards allowed, San Francisco
surrendered 240 passing yards per game in the month of December after giving up
just 136 passing yards per game in their first 11 games.
San Francisco is 4-1 against Minnesota in the playoffs (the
only loss being in 1987), but after doubting them last week, I think that
Minnesota matches up well with San Francisco and will start the weekend with a
major upset and become the third NFC #6 seed to advance to the NFC Championship.
|
NFC #6 Seeds Who Reached Divisional
Round
|
||
|
Year
|
Team
|
Result
|
|
1991
|
Falcons
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
1992
|
Redskins
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
1993
|
Packers
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
1994
|
Bears
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
1997
|
Vikings
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
1998
|
Cardinals
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2002
|
Falcons
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2004
|
Vikings
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2005
|
Redskins
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2008
|
Eagles
|
Lost NFC Championship
|
|
2010
|
Packers
|
Won Superbowl
|
|
2013
|
Saints
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2015
|
Seahawks
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2017
|
Falcons
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2018
|
Eagles
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
Prediction: Minnesota 23, San Francisco 20
(10-7) Tennessee Titans
(#6 Seed) @ (14-2) Baltimore Ravens (#1 Seed) – Saturday, January 11th,
8:15pm
The Tennessee Titans’ wildcard victory over the Patriots in
New England will likely go down as a very significant moment in NFL playoff
history, especially if it is Tom Brady’s final game as a Patriot. But does this
team have something left in the tank as they travel to Baltimore to take on a
Ravens team that has been virtually unstoppable this entire year? Tennessee’s victory
over New England suggests they have a chance to be competitive against the Ravens
but will likely have to catch a lot of breaks in order to pull off the upset.
Baltimore broke the record for the most rushing yards in a
single season with 3,296, as second-year QB Lamar Jackson rushed for 1,206
yards and 7 TD will also throwing for 36 TDs with just 6 INTs. The formula is
simple: run the ball with various misdirection plays where the defense doesn’t
know whether the running back or quarterback has it, and throw the ball
predominantly to tight ends and running backs (just 43% of Ravens passes were
targeted to wide receivers this season). Yet NFL defenses seem incapable of
stopping them, as the best defensive performance against Baltimore this season
came from the now-eliminated Buffalo Bills, who held Baltimore to a season-low
257 total yards and 118 rushing yards but still lost to the Ravens at home
24-17. Also going in Baltimore’s favor is that the 22-year old Jackson has
playoff experience under his belt as the Ravens narrowly lost to the LA Chargers
at home in last year’s Wildcard Round. The Ravens also benefit from home-field
advantage throughout the playoffs in a year where there will be a QB representing
the AFC not named Brady, Gannon, Roethlisberger, Manning, or Flacco since 2001,
while the Ravens have the only remaining head coach, John Harbaugh, to have previously
represented the AFC in the Superbowl.
|
Quarterbacks Representing AFC in
Superbowl Since 2001
|
||
|
Quarterback
|
Team
|
Superbowl Appearances
|
|
Tom Brady
|
Patriots
|
2001, 2003, 2004, 2007, 2011, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018
|
|
Rich Gannon
|
Raiders
|
2002
|
|
Ben Roethlisberger
|
Steelers
|
2005, 2008, 2010
|
|
Peyton Manning
|
Colts/Broncos
|
2006, 2009, 2013, 2015
|
|
Joe Flacco
|
Ravens
|
2012
|
Tennessee will also be looking to establish the run as RB
Derrick Henry who won this season’s rushing title destroyed New England’s defense
with 182 yards (which was the 15th best performance in NFL playoff
history) and a TD on 34 carries. In fact, giving the ball to Henry accounted
for 61% of the Titans offensive plays last week which helped limit the amount
of times that New England had possession. The buzz going into the playoffs for
Tennessee had been about the renaissance of Ryan Tannehill and the passing
offense, but he had very little to do with the offense last week going 8-15 for
72 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT. Tannehill did look a bit shaky in the plays he was
involved in but largely got away with them as he fumbled twice with the Titans
recovering both and his lone interception was a really poor 4th quarter
decision that the Patriots could not capitalize on. In order to have a chance
against Baltimore, Tannehill will need to have a better performance against a staunch
Ravens defense that is 3rd best in points allowed and 4th
in yards allowed. The key to stopping Baltimore’s offense may be stellar play
by the Titans offense, as Baltimore has never trailed by double-digits
in a game since September. Tennessee’s defense gives up a lot of yards (360
yards per game, 21st in the league) and it would seem that the
Titans’ path to victory would be to get an early lead and force the Ravens out
of their comfort zone and play from behind.
The last meeting between these two teams show just how far they
have come, as Baltimore won 21-0 in Tennessee in October 2018. This would be
the last win that Joe Flacco would have as the Ravens starting QB before
getting injured and surrendering the job to Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, the
Titans offense was held to an embarrassing 106 total yards of offense, and then-starter
Marcus Mariota was sacked 11 times. These were common themes in the beginning
of this season as well which led to the benching of Mariota in favor of Tannehill.
This will be the third time Baltimore and Tennessee have faced off in the
playoffs, and surprisingly the road team has won them all, including when #6
seed Baltimore defeated the top-seeded Titans 13-10 in the 2008 Divisional playoffs.
While I think the Titans will be competitive and make this a good one to watch,
ultimately I don’t believe they will join the ranks of AFC #6 seeds to win the
in Divisional Round.
|
AFC #6 Seeds Who Reached Divisional Round
|
||
|
Year
|
Team
|
Result
|
|
1999
|
Dolphins
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2005
|
Steelers
|
Won Superbowl
|
|
2008
|
Ravens
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
2009
|
Ravens
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2010
|
Jets
|
Lost AFC Championship
|
|
2013
|
Chargers
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2014
|
Ravens
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2015
|
Steelers
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
|
2018
|
Colts
|
Lost in Divisional Round
|
Prediction: Baltimore 35, Tennessee 27
