NFL Divisional Round - Sunday Game Analysis & Predictions

Well it looks like my hunch about a #6 seed winning was correct… I just picked the wrong one. I will however still take credit for this:

“The key to stopping Baltimore’s offense may be stellar play by the Titans offense, as Baltimore has never trailed by double-digits in a game since September.”

(11-6) Houston Texans (#4 Seed) @ (12-4) Kansas City Chiefs (#2 Seed) – Sunday, January 12^th, 3:05pm

The Kansas City Chiefs, who fell just short of the Superbowl last year could not possibly be in a better position. Think about all that has happened since the last time they were on the field, defeating the Los Angeles Chargers on December 29^th. The Patriots get upset by the Dolphins which hands them the #2 seed and a first-round bye, the Titans take down the Patriots (who would have been the Chiefs first opponent) in the Wildcard Round, and then the Titans defeat the top-seeded Baltimore Ravens and give the Chiefs the opportunity to host the AFC Championship game. Kansas City won’t screw this up, right?

Titans heroics aside, the Chiefs know they enter their Divisional Round game against the Houston Texans with the expectations that they are the clear favorite in the AFC. And because of such expectations, both Kansas City and Head Coach Andy Reid know their path to the Superbowl will involve exorcising some demons. Although the Chiefs won their first home playoff game last season (a 31-13 Divisional Round win over the Colts) in more than 25 years, the AFC Championship loss to the Patriots was another heartbreaking Arrowhead defeat. A win today paired with a win next week to clinch a Superbowl berth would finally shut down the narrative of the Chiefs choking in the playoffs at home.

Chiefs Home Playoff Games Since Their Last Superbowl Win
Year	Round	Opponent	Result
1971	Divisional	Miami	27-24 L
1991	Wildcard	LA Raiders	10-6 W
1993	Wildcard	Pittsburgh	27-24 W
1995	Divisional	Indianapolis	10-7 L
1997	Divisional	Denver	14-10 L
2003	Divisional	Indianapolis	38-31 L
2010	Wildcard	Baltimore	30-7 L
2016	Divisional	Pittsburgh	18-16 L
2017	Wildcard	Tennessee	22-21 L
2018	Divisional	Indianapolis	31-13 W
2018	AFC Championship	New England	37-31 L

Although Reid spent most of his tenure with the Eagles, he also shares a history of playoff disappointment. Despite making the playoffs for the 15^th time in his 21 seasons as a head coach, Reid has a career playoff record of 12-14 and has only reached the Superbowl once (a 24-21 loss to the Patriots in 2004). In terms of this game, Reid has typically done well with a first round bye as his teams have gone 4-1 in the Divisional Round after having the week off, but the fact is that the conference is wide open this year and anything short of a Superbowl victory will be yet another failure in what has otherwise been a very successful coaching career.

Andy Reid Head Coaching Record in the Playoffs
Year	Team	Seed	Result	Opponent	Score
2000	Eagles	#4	Lost in Divisional Round	NY Giants	20-10
2001	Eagles	#3	Lost in NFC Championship	St. Louis	29-24
2002	Eagles	#1	Lost in NFC Championship	Tampa Bay	27-10
2003	Eagles	#1	Lost in NFC Championship	Carolina	14-3
2004	Eagles	#1	Lost in Superbowl	New England	24-21
2006	Eagles	#3	Lost in Divisional Round	New Orleans	27-24
2008	Eagles	#6	Lost in NFC Championship	Arizona	32-25
2009	Eagles	#6	Lost in Wildcard Round	Dallas	34-14
2010	Eagles	#3	Lost in Wildcard Round	Green Bay	21-16
2013	Chiefs	#5	Lost in Wildcard Round	Indianapolis	45-44
2015	Chiefs	#5	Lost in Divisional Round	New England	27-20
2016	Chiefs	#2	Lost in Divisional Round	Pittsburgh	18-16
2017	Chiefs	#4	Lost in Wildcard Round	Tennessee	22-21
2018	Chiefs	#1	Lost in AFC Championship	New England	37-31

After taking the football world by storm last year with the top offense in the league (35 points per game, 426 yards per game), the Chiefs took a little bit of a step back ranking 5^th in the league in points (28 per game) and 6^th in yards (379 per game). But they have benefitted from a much-improved defense (19 points allowed per game, 349 yards allowed per game) after their defensive unit was one of the worst in the league last year (26 points allowed per game, 406 yards allowed per game). The Chiefs enter the playoffs on a 6-game winning streak heading into the playoffs which is usually a good sign, but they also went just 3-3 in the regular season against playoff teams including two home losses to the Packers and Texans.

In fact, it is Houston’s 31-24 win in over the Chiefs in Arrowhead on October 13^th that is really the best piece of evidence to suggest that Houston is going to win this game. Houston just seems to be a slightly above average team that has not really done much this season to suggest that they are the team deserving of hosting the AFC Championship next week. The comeback against the Buffalo Bills last week was certainly an impressive one, don’t get me wrong, but the Bills did as much to choke away the game with Josh Allen’s erratic play as the Texans did to win it. Buffalo outgained the Texans 425-360 in what was their highest offensive output all season. A repeat defensive performance by the Texans defense would be a death sentence against Kansas City’s offense and fast start for Houston’s offense will be necessary despite this not being their strong suit (Houston has been outscored 82-47 in the first quarter this season).

There isn’t much history between these two teams as the only previous playoff matchup was a Kansas City 30-0 win against Houston in the Wildcard Round in which Texans QB Brian Hoyer threw 4 interceptions. The only previous matchup between Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes and Texans QB Deshaun Watson was the aforementioned game in October, where Houston rallied from a 17-3 first quarter deficit to beat the Chiefs as they held Kansas City’s time of possession to just 20 minutes. Despite how high scoring it was, the game was somewhat ugly as the teams combined for 21 penalties and 5 turnovers.

Ultimately, this is the Chiefs’ game to lose. Their most troublesome competitors, Baltimore and New England are out. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid have a clear path to the Superbowl and if the Chiefs are on their game, they’ll get it done. Don’t expect Houston to phased, however. They’ve already won in Arrowhead and they seem to relish playing from behind. In a very unpredictable playoffs thus far I would not be surprised by a Texans win but I think the Chiefs will move on to set up an AFC Championship Game against the Titans.

Prediction: Kansas City 34, Houston 24

(12-5) Seattle Seahawks (#5 Seed) @ (13-3) Green Bay Packers (#2 Seed) – Sunday, January 12^th, 6:40pm

The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks will meet for the final game of the Divisional Playoffs in what has become a familiar rivalry over the last 20 years. It all began when Mike Holmgren who had gone 75-37 with the Packers and lead Green Bay to a Superbowl title resigned in 1998 after being lured to Seattle with an eight-year contract to coach and be general manager of the Seahawks. Holmgren would then acquire Packers backup QB Matt Hasselbeck who would go on to lead the Seahawks to 6 playoff appearances and a Superbowl appearance. These two teams would meet in the playoffs twice, both Packer wins at Lambeau field including a 2003 Divisional game in which after winning the coin toss in overtime Hasselbeck said, “We want the ball and we’re going to score.” Hasselbeck would then proceed to throw a game winning pick-six to Packers CB Al Harris. Green Bay also sent Holmgren packing in what would be his last playoff game, 42-20 in the 2007 Divisional Round.

While the Seahawks had put together a foundation in the Holmgren era, they started to become a contender under Pete Carroll who has established a 100-59-1 record as Seahawks head coach. Their more recent matchups with Green Bay have been more in their favor as they even won a game they objectively shouldn’t have, when in the 2012 “Fail Mary” game, Seattle was awarded a game-winning touchdown on what was clearly a Green Bay interception. Then the Seahawks stunned Green Bay by rallying from a 19-7 4^th quarter deficit in the final three minutes of the NFC Championship game, to force overtime and beat the Packers 28-22, resulting in their second straight Superbowl appearance.

Despite having won Lombardi trophy in 2010, the NFC Championship loss in which Green Bay blew a double-digit 4^th quarter lead and muffed an easy catch on a Seahawks onside kick seem to be indicative of inexplicable and frustrating Green Bay playoff failures. Other notable losses include two epic comebacks against the Arizona Cardinals that both ended with an overtime loss, and a shocking home upset to the New York Giants in the 2011 Divisional Round when the Packers were the best team in the league with a 15-1 record. Many blamed Head Coach Mike McCarthy for these failures rather than QB Aaron Rodgers, so this year with a new head coach (Matt LaFleur), a first-round bye, and facing familiar foil, expect much more pressure to be on Rodgers to get the job done.

Aaron Rodgers Playoff Results
Year	Seed	Result	Opponent	Score
2009	#5	Lost in Wildcard Round	Arizona	51-45
2010	#6	Won Superbowl	Pittsburgh	31-25
2011	#1	Lost in Divisional Round	NY Giants	37-20
2012	#3	Lost in Divisional Round	San Francisco	45-31
2013	#4	Lost in Wildcard Round	San Francisco	23-20
2014	#2	Lost in NFC Championship	Seattle	28-22
2015	#5	Lost in Divisional Round	Arizona	26-20
2016	#4	Lost in NFC Championship	Atlanta	44-21

As described in the previous week’s post, the Seattle Seahawks remain an enigma. From a statistical perspective the only thing they really seem to be good at is winning games. They narrowly defeated the Eagles in Philadelphia 17-9, but were far from great, aside from WR DK Metcalf who caught 7 passes for 160 yards and 1 TD. Seattle had to rely heavily on their passing game as the playoff return of Marshawn Lynch was very underwhelming (6 carries, 7 yards, 1 TD). They will need more output from the run game against a Packers defense that was 23^rd in rushing yards allowed this season. The Seattle defense will also face a much tougher test against Rodgers after getting 3 full quarters of Eagles 40-year old backup QB Josh McCown.

This seems like a game where you almost need to throw out the stat book because there isn’t much separating these teams, and everything would suggest that this game will be close. Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers have matched up seven times previously with Wilson and the Seahawks going 4-3. The Packers score 24 points per game and allow 19 points per game, while the Seahawks score 25 per game and allow 25. Aaron Rodgers had 26 TDs and 4 INT this year while Russell Wilson had 31 TD and 5 INT. They last met on Thursday Night Football in November of last year when Seattle won 27-24 in a game where they just barely edged out the Packers in yardage 378-359. While Green Bay may be a somewhat better team this year, Seattle consistently demonstrates its ability to win close games including 8 of 9 on the road.

This prediction is one of reverse psychology. I want to pick Seattle so much that I’m convinced the Packers will finally strike back against the Seahawks and advance to the NFC Championship.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Seattle 21