NFL Wildcard Weekend Analysis & Predictions

(10-6) Buffalo Bills (#5 Seed) @ (10-6) Houston Texans (#4 Seed) – Saturday, January 4^th, 4:35pm

The Wildcard matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the Houston Texans features two young teams with untested quarterbacks and head coaches, with both looking to prove that they are a contender in the league. This will be the first postseason matchup between these teams although Buffalo did win both of its playoff matchups with the Houston Oilers (including a comeback from a 35-3 deficit in a 1992 Wildcard game). The Bills enter the postseason having taken a huge step forward under the leadership of head coach Sean McDermott. In his three seasons as Bills coach, he is 25-23 and will be making his second playoff appearance in three years, which is something that no Bills Head Coach had come close to this century:

Bills Head Coaches Since 2001

The Bills were still foiled from their regular season goal of finally beating the Patriots in the AFC East, as they lost close games to New England in both matchups, but with the second-ranked defense (16.2 points per game) in the league, they enter the playoffs as the most dangerous wildcard team.

A Buffalo run in the playoffs will be contingent on the performance of second-year QB Josh Allen. Allen remains an enigma, as his big play ability is still hampered by his inability to have a completion percentage that is on par with the pro game. This year Allen is actually enjoying his best completion percentage (59%) in his college or pro career, despite being last among all starting QBs in this category. Making his first playoff start at 23, Allen will join 27 other QBs to make their postseason debut at 23 or younger in league history, with those quarterbacks going 8-19 in their debut. None have ever appeared in a Superbowl, with just the 7 below making the conference championship. In fact, the last time a quarterback won a Superbowl in their playoff debut was Tom Brady in 2001.

QBs Under 23 Best Result in First Playoff Appearance
Year	Player	Team	Age	Result
2004	Ben Roethlisberger	Steelers	22	Lost AFC Championship
2000	Daunte Culpepper	Vikings	23	Lost NFC Championship
2008	Joe Flacco	Ravens	23	Lost AFC Championship
2009	Mark Sanchez	Jets	23	Lost AFC Championship
1976	Pat Haden	Rams	23	Lost NFC Championship
2018	Patrick Mahomes	Chiefs	23	Lost AFC Championship
1999	Shaun King	Buccaneers	22	Lost NFC Championship

While McDermott enters this matchup with considerable momentum, Texans Head Coach Bill O’Brien enters another postseason trying to prove to the sports world that he is capable of winning in the playoffs. O’Brien is just 1-3 in the playoffs, with his lone win coming in the 2016 Wildcard round against Oakland, a team that saw their starting and backup QBs go down with injury in the previous two games, resulting in the only NFL start of third-string QB Connor Cook’s NFL career (he is now gainfully employed in the XFL). More troubling is that two of these playoff exits came at home in the Wildcard round, losing to the Chiefs 30-0 in 2015, and 21-7 to Indianapolis last year. In defense of O’Brien, he did have Brian Hoyer, Brock Osweiler, and a 23-year old Deshaun Watson in those three playoff appearances, but this will undoubtedly be a critical game for O’Brien’s reputation as the coach of this team.

Deshaun Watson, in his second full season as a starter had a similar statistical year to 2018, but will need to improve upon the embarrassing playoff loss to the Colts. While the Texans only committed one turnover in that game, they surrendered 200 yards to Indianapolis on the ground, committed eight penalties and went 3-13 on third down. Although their overall offensive statistics are remarkably similar to the year before, Watson has more offensive weapons at his disposal which could be the difference in making a deep playoff run. While DeAndre Hopkins remains by far the top receiver on the team with 104 receptions and 1,165 yards, Will Fuller (670 yards, 3 TDs) and Kenny Stills (561 yards, 4 TDs) provide the Texans with legitimate second and third options. On the ground, the Texans have two legitimate threats with thousand-yard rusher Carlos Hyde (1,070, 6 TDs), and all-purpose back Duke Johnson who recorded 410 rushing yards and 410 receiving yards this season. One cause for concern is the regression of Houston’s defense as they went from being the 4^th best defense in terms of points and 12^th in terms of yardage in 2018, to 19^th in points and 28^th in yardage this year. The hope for Houston is that the return of star defensive lineman JJ Watt from injury will help solidify the defense. But Watt’s impact to the pass-rush may be limited as Buffalo may look to utilize its three rushing options (Devin Singletary with 775 yards, Frank Gore with 599 yards, and Josh Allen with 510 yards) against a Texans defense that surrenders 121 rushing yards per game.

History doesn’t help us here as the only matchup between Josh Allen and Deshaun Watson was a 20-13 Texans win in Houston earlier this year, in which Allen was forced from the game due to an elbow injury and backup Nathan Peterman threw a pick-six that sealed a Texans win. This game should be close, but I think at the end of the day, Buffalo’s defense will do enough to send Houston to yet another home defeat.

Prediction: Buffalo 20, Houston 17

(9-7) Tennessee Titans (#6 Seed) @ (12-4) New England Patriots (#3 Seed) – Saturday, January 4^th, 8:15pm

We have been here many times before in recent years. First it was after a 41-14 loss to Kansas City on Monday Night Football in 2014. Tom Brady threw 2 interceptions and many prognosticators were suggesting it was time to bench Brady in favor of Jimmy Garoppolo. Instead, Bill Belichick and the Patriots were “on to Cincinnati” and the Patriots would be hoisting the Lombardi Trophy just 4 months later. Three years and another championship later, the Patriots would lose to Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles 41-33 in the highest scoring Superbowl of all time. Clearly this would be the end of the dynasty. Bill Belichick benched starting CB and Superbowl hero Malcolm Butler before the game and the defense played so poorly that it wasted one of the best offensive performances of Tom Brady’s career. How can they rebound from that? Of course New England would do just that the following year while the Philadelphia Eagles and Nick Foles have not managed to do anything super since. Then there was last season. Sure the Patriots went 11-5 and secured the #2 seed in the AFC but they had very uncharacteristic back-to-back December losses to Miami and Pittsburgh which led to the pundits falling back into the trap that New England was done. Many predicted a home one-and-done against the LA Chargers in 2018 Divisional playoffs. Tom Brady acknowledged that he knew that people thought “they sucked” and this seemed to motivate the team to a 41-28 thrashing of the Chargers, an epic 37-31 win against the Chiefs at Arrowhead in the AFC Championship, and a 13-3 win over the Los Angeles Rams to secure their sixth title. So could Saturday’s Wildcard matchup against the Tennessee Titans finally be the end? While there is a good amount of evidence to suggest yes, it is under these sorts of circumstances that Brady, Belichick, and the Patriots have thrived.

After a 2-4 start and putting up just 16 points per game, the Titans turned around their season by benching starting QB Marcus Mariota for Dolphins castoff Ryan Tannehill and saw immediate results. Under Tannehill, Tennessee went 7-3 with an average of 30 points per game and Tannehill individually has had his best season with career bests in winning percentage (70%), completion percentage (70.3%), TD-to-INT ratio (3.7) and QBR (65.4). At 31 years old, Tannehill will be making his playoff debut, which may not bode well as every QB over 30 making their postseason debut are just 3-6 in those games and none have ever reached a Superbowl. A compounding issue is Tannehill’s lack of success against New England - Tannehill is 4-7 against the Patriots in his career, but 0-6 in Foxboro, where he has thrown 5 TDs and 10 INT.

QBs 30 and Older Making Playoff Debut
Year	Player	Team	Age	First Game	Result
2015	Brian Hoyer	Texans	30	Loss	Lost AFC Wildcard
2001	Jeff Garcia	49ers	31	Loss	Lost NFC Wildcard
2001	Jim Miller	Bears	30	Loss	Lost NFC Divisional
2016	Matt Moore	Dolphins	32	Loss	Lost AFC Wildcard
2012	Matt Schaub	Texans	31	Won	Lost AFC Divisional
2000	Rich Gannon	Raiders	35	Won	Lost AFC Championship
2007	Todd Collins	Redskins	36	Loss	Lost NFC Wildcard
2002	Tommy Maddox	Steelers	31	Won	Lost AFC Divisional
2003	Trent Green	Chiefs	33	Loss	Lost AFC Divisional

Although the Patriots have beaten the Titans in their previous two playoff matchups (17-14 in 2003 and 35-14 in 2017, both in Foxboro), there is reason to think that Tennessee could be the ones to end the Patriots’ magical run. In November 2018, the Titans handed the Patriots their worst loss of the season as they won 34-10 in a game that featured Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis combining for 115 yards and 2 TD on 31 carries. Henry is having the best season of his career as he led the league in rushing with 1,540 yards and he and Lewis will need another solid performance to upset the Patriots. It is worth noting that in his only previous postseason that Henry dominated Kansas City with 156 yards in the Wildcard round, only to get shutdown by the Patriots (12 carries, 28 yards) the following week. Meanwhile in that November game, the Titans held the Patriots to a season-low 40 yards on the ground which will obviously need to be turned around in order to be successful on Saturday. In the last 7 games, Patriots have outrushed their opponents by an average 124-91.

The shocking loss to the Miami Dolphins may obscure just how good the Patriots #1 ranked defense is but expect them to rebound against Tennessee. Even after their bye week, a much-criticized stretch where the Patriots went 4-3, New England gave up an average of 18 points per game and held four of their opponents under 300 total yards. Stephon Gilmore who was the likely winner of Defensive Player of the Year before getting humiliated by Dolphins WR Devante Parker, took the blame for the Patriots loss and will not likely have a repeat performance against Titans #1 receiver AJ Brown. The key for New England’s defense will be forcing turnovers: in their 4 losses the defense has forced only an average of 1 turnover per game but forced an average of 2.7 turnovers in their 12 wins. The Titans have committed at least one turnover in 9 of the 10 games since Ryan Tannehill took over as starter.

The main argument in the Titans favor is that Tom Brady is not playing at an elite level anymore. And there is no doubt that Brady had a much worse second half of the season (55.4% completions, 10 TD, 3 INT) than the first half (64.8% completions, 14 TD, 5 INT). Reasons for this decline include Brady’s mysterious elbow injury and a lack of cohesion with his relatively new passing targets. The reason I still have optimism in Brady’s ability to bounce back for this game was the fact that he looked much improved in the division-deciding win against Buffalo and even decent last week against the Dolphins, with a pick-six being the only blemish. Even if Brady is playing hurt and it is affecting his ability to throw the ball, he has been generally careful not to turn the ball over as his TD/INT ratio of 3 is actually better than in 4 of his 6 Superbowl winning seasons. As we saw with Peyton Manning in 2015, an efficient, relatively safe passing game buoyed by a solid running game and top defense can result in a title. While I’m not saying that’s what’s going to happen here, I don’t think the Belichick-Brady era ends Saturday in Foxboro.

Prediction: New England 35, Tennessee 17

(10-6) Minnesota Vikings (#6 Seed) @ (13-3) New Orleans Saints (#3 Seed) – Sunday, January 5^th, 1:00pm

The Wildcard matchup between the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints will be the rematch of the Minneapolis Miracle, when Vikings QB Case Keenum threw a 61-yard touchdown to Stefon Diggs over the Saints defense on the final play of the game to send Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game. While Minnesota is 3-1 all-time against New Orleans in the NFL playoffs, the Saints lone win was also very significant in the history of their franchise, as their 31-28 overtime win over the Vikings sent them to their only Superbowl appearance and title.

In his fifth full season as a starter, Vikings QB Kirk Cousins enters this game with the reputation of a player who cannot win the big game. After all, it’s well documented that he has never won a start on Monday Night Football (0-9). He has also lost his only playoff start (35-18 loss to Green Bay), missed the playoffs last year by losing both games to the eventual division winner Chicago Bears, and again failed to win the division this year after an uninspiring 23-10 home loss to the Packers.

Cousins is surprisingly even when matching up with Saints QB Drew Brees. In 2015, the Redskins beat the Saints with Cousins throwing 4 TD and 0 INT in a 47-14 win at FedEx Field. Cousins nearly won against Brees again in the Superdome in 2017 before Brees rallied the Saints from a 31-16 deficit in the final 3 minutes to defeat the Redskins 34-31 in overtime. In his only start with the Vikings against New Orleans, Cousins did not fare as well as he threw a pick-six and the Vikings lost 30-20 at home. Cousins hopes to benefit from the return of starting RB Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 1,135 yards despite missing the final two games with a shoulder injury.  

For the Saints and 40-year-old Drew Brees, there has to be concern that the window is closing. This is the first time in Brees’ career that he’s made the playoffs three consecutive years, and this may be the best the Saints have been in his storied career. They hope to avoid a third crushing playoff loss after being denied a Superbowl appearance by the Minneapolis Miracle in 2017 and a home loss to the Rams in last year’s NFC Championship game after a phantom no-call of both pass interference and unnecessary roughness on the same play, which denied the Saints a chance to run out the clock.

Drew Brees Playoff Appearances
Year	Result	Opponent	Score
2004	Lost Wildcard	NY Jets	20-17
2006	Lost Conf Championship	Chicago	39-14
2009	Won Superbowl	Indianapolis	31-17
2010	Lost Wildcard	Seattle	41-36
2011	Lost Divisional	San Francisco	36-32
2013	Lost Divisional	Seattle	23-15
2017	Lost Divisional	Minnesota	29-24
2018	Lost Conf Championship	LA Rams	26-23

Despite these dispiriting losses, expect Brees to do well this week as he is 6-1 all-time in the playoffs in the Superdome, with last year’s controversial loss being the lone home defeat. The key for Minnesota in this game will be to at least slow Brees down as the Vikings’ defense has shown their ability to bend but not break as they are 5^th best in points allowed despite being 14^th best in yards allowed. The problem is that the success of Minnesota’s defense is also reliant on forcing turnovers, as they forced 31 in the regular season, while the Saints have turned the ball over a league-low 8 times this season. While Minnesota has a puncher’s chance in this game, I’d be shocked if the Saints and Drew Brees’ quest for redemption ends here.

Prediction: New Orleans 41, Minnesota 20

(11-5) Seattle Seahawks (#5 Seed) @ (9-7) Philadelphia Eagles (#4 Seed) – Sunday, January 5^th, 4:40pm

The Seattle Seahawks travel to Philadelphia in what will be the only playoff matchup this year where the host has a worse win-loss record than their opponent. This is the first-ever playoff matchup between these teams, but they will be meeting for the second time in just over a month as Seattle won 17-9 in Philadelphia on November 24th. The star offensive player in the game was Seattle RB Rashaad Penny who rushed for 129 yards and a TD but the game overall was ugly as Seattle allowed 6 sacks and committed 12 penalties while Philadelphia committed a season high 5 turnovers.

Then again Seattle’s season itself could be characterized as ugly… or clutch… or lucky, depending on your perspective. Despite an 11-5 record, 10 of those wins were in one possession games. Despite losing three of their last four games, they came a half-yard short of winning the NFC West. Their defense allowed more points than the Browns and Jaguars but forced the third most turnovers. Their offense averaged 374 yards per game yet gained only 232 yards in a 1-point win over the Bengals and only 224 yards in a 27-13 loss to the Cardinals, both at home. The Seahawks who have established themselves as a run-first team in recent years, lost their top three running backs in the month of December: Chris Carson with a fractured hip, Rashaad Penny with a torn ACL, and CJ Prosise with a broken arm. Seattle is an enigma and probably the most difficult to figure out among the 12 playoff teams.

To try to save their season despite the rash of injuries, Seattle brought back RB Marshawn Lynch, who had the best run in Seahawks playoff history, if not NFL history. This will be the first playoff appearance for Marshawn Lynch in nearly 4 years, and while he did not have an awe-inspiring debut against the Niners last week, in his career he has posted more than 100 yards in 6 of his 11 playoff appearances.

This is a pivotal moment for Eagles QB Carson Wentz, who is making his playoff debut after two straight seasons of suffering season-ending injuries and watching Nick Foles start for Philadelphia in the playoffs and win a Superbowl title. Wentz posted strong numbers this season (64% completion percentage, 4,039 yards, 27 TD, 7 INT), especially when considering that the Eagles lost their two best WRs, DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey, during the season. Left for dead by many in the middle of the season, the Eagles won their final four games, all against NFC East teams, to bypass the Cowboys for the division crown and a playoff berth.

Philadelphia’s problem is that there are no more NFC East teams left to play. The Eagles ended up 5-1 in their division but just 4-6 against the rest of the league. However, there is reason to think that Eagles can win this game after their topsy-turvy season. Aside from their December run, they have shown flashes as they are 2-3 against playoff teams, recording wins in Buffalo and Green Bay. Furthermore, the Seahawks run-first mentality plays into Philly’s strength as they have the third best rushing defense in the league allowing just 90 yards per game. Another reason is that while Seattle sports a better record, in these wildcard matchups, home teams with 9 wins or less playing against a team with a better record are 8-4 in those games.

This game could very well be the most interesting one of the weekend, because it is really difficult to figure out what you are getting from either of these teams. While there is certainly reason to suggest that Philly will end up winning this game, at the end of the day I favor Seattle because of their intangible ability to pull out close games. Russell Wilson already has two road wildcard wins under his belt, and the only time he’s gone one-and-done was last year’s home loss to the Cowboys.

Russell Wilson in Wildcard Round
Year	Opponent	Location	Result	Stats
2012	Washington	Away	24-14 W	15-26 187 yds, 1 TD 0 INT
2015	Minnesota	Away	10-9 W	13-26 142 yds, 1 TD 1 INT
2016	Detroit	Home	26-6 W	23-30 224 yds, 2 TD 0 INT
2018	Dallas	Away	24-22 L	18-27 233 yds, 1 TD 0 INT

Prediction: Seattle 19, Philadelphia 13 (OT)